Thu, 22 Aug 2019 17:59:17 GMT

ONLINE SUBMISSION
USER:
PASSWORD:
         
GUIDE FOR AUTHORS
Forgot your password?
Enter your e-mail to receive an e-mail with your account information.
CONTENTS
Current Issues
ALL Issues
Subscription
Online First
Journal Citation
ABOUT JES
Committee
Journal Honor
JES
Contact us

Statistics of Evolving Populations and their Relevance to Flood Risk

Robert E. Criss*



Statistics of Evolving
Populations and their Relevance to Flood Risk


                                                                           Robert E. Criss*

Departmentof Earth and Planetary Sciences, Washington University, St. Louis MO 63130, USA

Email: criss@wustl.edu

 

ABSTRACT:Statisticalmethods are commonly used to evaluate natural populations and environmental variables, yet these must recognize temporal trends in population character to be appropriate in an evolving world.  New equations presented here define the statistical measures of aggregate historical populations affected by linear changes in population means and standard deviations.  These can be used to extract the statistical character of present-day populations, needed to define modern variability and risk, from tables of historical data that are dominated by measurements made when conditions were different.  As an example, many factors such as climate change and in-channel structures are causing flood levels to rise, so realistic estimation of future flood levels must take such secular changes into account.  The new equations provide estimates of water levels for “100-year” floods in the USA Midwest that are 0.5 to 2m higher than official calculations that routinely assume population stationarity.  These equations also show that flood levels will continue to rise by several centimeters per year.  This rate is nearly ten times faster than the rise of sea level, and thus represents one of the fastest and most damaging rates of  change that is documented by robust data.

Key words: flood risk, statistical theory,Mississippi River.

DOI:10.1007/s12583-015-0641-9

Downloads(New)

 

 

Keywords:

DOI:
10.1007/s12583-015-0641-9
CLC number:
U469.72
Download Full Text:
Click Here
Downloaded:
101