Changes in Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation under Different Atmospheric CO₂ Scenarios in a Climate Model

The changes in the thermohaline circulation (THC) because of the increased CO₂ in the atmosphere play an important role in future climate regimes. In this article, a new climate model developed at the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology is used to study the variation in THC strength, the changes of North Atlantic deep-water (NADW) formation, and the regional responses of the THC in the North Atlantic to increasing atmospheric CO₂. From 2000 to 2100, under increased CO₂ scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2), the strength of THC decreases by 4 Sv (106 m³/s), 5.1 Sv, and 5.2 Sv, respectively, equivalent to a reduction of 20%, 25%, and 25.1% of the present THC strength. The analyses show that the oceanic deep convective activity significantly strengthens in the Greenland-Iceland-Norway (GIN) Seas owing to saltier (denser) upper oceans, whereas weakens in the Labrador Sea and in the south of the Denmark Strait region (SDSR) because of surface warming and freshening due to global warming. The saltiness of the GIN Seas is mainly caused by the increase of the saline North Atlantic inflow through the Faro-Bank (FB) Channel. Under the scenario A1B, the deep-water formation rate in the North Atlantic decreases from 16.2 Sv to 12.9 Sv with increasing CO₂.