Advanced Search

Indexed by SCI、CA、РЖ、PA、CSA、ZR、etc .

Volume 31 Issue 6
Dec 2020
Turn off MathJax
Article Contents
Robert E. Criss, Wenmin Yao, Changdong Li, Huiming Tang. A Predictive, Two-Parameter Model for the Movement of Reservoir Landslides. Journal of Earth Science, 2020, 31(6): 1051-1057. doi: 10.1007/s12583-020-1331-9
Citation: Robert E. Criss, Wenmin Yao, Changdong Li, Huiming Tang. A Predictive, Two-Parameter Model for the Movement of Reservoir Landslides. Journal of Earth Science, 2020, 31(6): 1051-1057. doi: 10.1007/s12583-020-1331-9

A Predictive, Two-Parameter Model for the Movement of Reservoir Landslides

doi: 10.1007/s12583-020-1331-9
More Information
  • Corresponding author: Robert E. Criss,
  • Received Date: 10 Jan 2020
  • Accepted Date: 14 Apr 2020
  • Publish Date: 18 Dec 2020
  • Monitoring data show that many landslides in the Three Gorges region,China,undergo step-like displacements in response to the managed,quasi-sinusoidal annual variations in reservoir level. This behavior is consistent with motion initiating when the reservoir water level falls below a critical level that is intrinsic to each landslide,with the subsequent displacement rate of the landslide being proportional to the water depth below that critical level. Most motion terminates when the water level rises back above the critical level,so the annual step size is the time integral of the instantaneous displacement rate. These responses are incorporated into a differential equation that is easily calibrated with monitoring data,allowing prediction of landslide movement from actual or anticipated reservoir level changes. Model successes include (1) initiation and termination of the annual sliding steps at the critical reservoir level,producing a series of steps; (2) prediction of variable step size,year to year; and (3) approximate prediction of the shape and size of each annual step. Annual rainfall correlates poorly with step size,probably because its effect on groundwater levels is dwarfed by the 30 m annual variations in the level of the Three Gorges Reservoir. Viscous landslide behavior is suggested.


  • loading
  • Barla, G., Paronuzzi, P., 2013. The 1963 Vajont Landslide:50th Anniversary. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering, 46(6):1267-1270. DOI: 10.1007/s00603-013-0483-7
    Bernardie, S., Desramaut, N., Malet, J. P., et al., 2015. Prediction of Changes in Landslide Rates Induced by Rainfall. Landslides, 12(3):481-494. DOI: 10.1007/s10346-014-0495-8
    Corominas, J., Moya, J., Ledesma, A., et al., 2005. Prediction of Ground Displacements and Velocities from Groundwater Level Changes at the Vallcebre Landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain). Landslides, 2(2):83-96. DOI: 10.1007/s10346-005-0049-1
    Criss, R. E., Winston, W. E., 2003. Hydrograph for Small Basins Following Intense Storms. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(6):1314-1318. DOI: 10.1029/2002gl016808
    Criss, R. E., Winston, W. E., 2008. Discharge Predictions of a Rainfall-Driven Theoretical Hydrograph Compared to Common Models and Observed Data. Water Resources Research, 44(10):W10407. DOI: 10.1029/2007wr006415
    Desai, C. S., Samtani, N. C., Vulliet, L., 1995. Constitutive Modeling and Analysis of Creeping Slopes. Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 121(1):43-56. DOI: 10.1061/(asce)0733-9410(1995)121:1(43)
    Du, J., Yin, K. L., Lacasse, S., 2013. Displacement Prediction in Colluvial Landslides, Three Gorges Reservoir, China. Landslides, 10(2):203-218. DOI: 10.1007/s10346-012-0326-8
    Jian, W. X., Xu, Q., Yang, H. F., et al., 2014. Mechanism and Failure Process of Qianjiangping Landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir, China. Environmental Earth Sciences, 72(8):2999-3013. DOI: 10.1007/s12665-014-3205-x
    Li, C. D., Fu, Z. Y., Wang, Y., et al., 2019. Susceptibility of Reservoir-Induced Landslides and Strategies for Increasing the Slope Stability in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area:Zigui Basin as an Example. Engineering Geology, 261:105279. DOI: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2019.105279
    Lian, C., Zeng, Z. G., Yao, W., et al., 2014. Extreme Learning Machine for the Displacement Prediction of Landslide under Rainfall and Reservoir Level. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 28(8):1957-1972. DOI: 10.1007/s00477-014-0875-6
    Liu, Z. B., Shao, J. F., Xu, W. Y., et al., 2014. Comparison on Landslide Nonlinear Displacement Analysis and Prediction with Computational Intelligence Approaches. Landslides, 11(5):889-896. DOI: 10.1007/s10346-013-0443-z
    Mantovani, F., Vita-Finzi, C., 2003. Neotectonics of the Vajont Dam Site. Geomorphology, 54(1/2):33-37. DOI: 10.1016/s0169-555x(03)00053-9
    Sato, H. P., Harp, E. L., 2009. Interpretation of Earthquake-Induced Landslides Triggered by the 12 May 2008, M7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake in the Beichuan Area, Sichuan Province, China Using Satellite Imagery and Google Earth. Landslides, 6(2):153-159. DOI: 10.1007/s10346-009-0147-6
    SEP, 2016. Simplicity: Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. (2016-12-20)[2020-5-29].
    Shihabudheen, K. V., Pillai, G. N., Peethambaran, B., 2017. Prediction of Landslide Displacement with Controlling Factors Using Extreme Learning Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ELANFIS). Applied Soft Computing, 61:892-904. DOI: 10.1016/j.asoc.2017.09.001
    Song, K., Wang, F. W., Yi, Q. L., et al., 2018. Landslide Deformation Behavior Influenced by Water Level Fluctuations of the Three Gorges Reservoir (China). Engineering Geology, 247:58-68. DOI: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2018.10.020
    Tang, H. M., Li, C. D., Hu, X. L., et al., 2015. Deformation Response of the Huangtupo Landslide to Rainfall and the Changing Levels of the Three Gorges Reservoir. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 74(3):933-942. DOI: 10.1007/s10064-014-0671-z
    Tang, H. M., Wasowski, J., Juang, C. H., 2019. Geohazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China-Lessons Learned from Decades of Research. Engineering Geology, 261:105267. DOI: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2019.105267
    Tomás, R., Li, Z., Liu, P., et al., 2014. Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Huangtupo Landslide in the Three Gorges Region (China) Constrained by Radar Interferometry. Geophysical Journal International, 197(1):213-232. DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggu017
    van Asch, T. W. J., Malet, J. P., Bogaard, T. A., 2009. The Effect of Groundwater Fluctuations on the Velocity Pattern of Slow-Moving Landslides. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9(3):739-749. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-9-739-2009
    Wu, Q., Tang, H. M., Ma, X. H., et al., 2019. Identification of Movement Characteristics and Causal Factors of the Shuping Landslide Based on Monitored Displacements. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 78(3):2093-2106. DOI: 10.1007/s10064-018-1237-2
    Xia, M., Ren, G. M., Ma, X. L., 2013. Deformation and Mechanism of Landslide Influenced by the Effects of Reservoir Water and Rainfall, Three Gorges, China. Natural Hazards, 68(2):467-482. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0634-x
    Yang, Y. B., Liu, M. G., 2005. The Present Advances and Trends of Landslide Predictions. Soil Engineering and Foundation, 19(2):61-65 (in Chinese with English Abstract)
    Yao, W. M., Li, C. D., Zhan, H. B., et al., 2020. Multiscale Study of Physical and Mechanical Properties of Sandstone in Three Gorges Reservoir Region Subjected to Cyclic Wetting-Drying of Yangtze River Water. Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering, 53(5):2215-2231. DOI: 10.1007/s00603-019-02037-7
    Yao, W. M., Li, C. D., Zuo, Q. J., et al., 2019. Spatiotemporal Deformation Characteristics and Triggering Factors of Baijiabao Landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China. Geomorphology, 343:34-47. DOI: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.06.024
    Zhao, N. H., Hu, B., Yi, Q. L., et al., 2017. The Coupling Effect of Rainfall and Reservoir Water Level Decline on the Baijiabao Landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China. Geofluids, 2017(12):1-12. DOI: 10.1155/2017/3724867
    Zou, Z. X., Tang, H. M., Xiong, C. R., et al., 2017. Kinetic Characteristics of Debris Flows as Exemplified by Field Investigations and Discrete Element Simulation of the Catastrophic Jiweishan Rockslide, China. Geomorphology, 295:1-15. DOI: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.06.012
  • 加载中


    通讯作者: 陈斌,
    • 1. 

      沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院 沈阳 110142

    1. 本站搜索
    2. 百度学术搜索
    3. 万方数据库搜索
    4. CNKI搜索

    Figures(6)  / Tables(1)

    Article Metrics

    Article views(1076) PDF downloads(99) Cited by()
    Proportional views


    DownLoad:  Full-Size Img  PowerPoint