| Citation: | Lu Guo, Keqiang He, Honghua Liu, Fandi Meng, Xuchun Wang. Physical Prediction Model of Compound Hydrodynamic Unload-Load Response Ratio and Its Application in Reservoir Colluvium Landslide. Journal of Earth Science, 2024, 35(4): 1304-1315. doi: 10.1007/s12583-022-1662-9
|
It is well known that the deformation and damage of reservoir colluvium landslides are often determined by the combined dynamics of reservoir water level change and rainfall. Based on the systematic analysis of the change law of reservoir water level, rainfall and displacements of reservoir colluvium landslide, this paper proposes the compound hydrodynamic action of rainfall and reservoir water as the unload-load parameter, and the landslide displacement as the unload-load response parameter. Based on this, a physical prediction model of the compound hydrodynamic unload-load response ratio of reservoir colluvium landslide was established, and the quantitative relationship between the compound hydrodynamic unload-load response ratio and its stability evolution was in-depth analyzed and determined. On the basis of the above research, taking Shuping landslide, a typical hydrodynamic pressure landslide as an example, the unload-load response ratio model is used to systematically evaluate and predict the stability evolution law and the change trend of the landslide under compound hydrodynamic action. The prediction result shows that the variation law of the compound hydrodynamic unload-load response ratio is consistent with the dynamic evolution law of its stability. Therefore, the above studies show that the compound hydrodynamic unload-load response ratio parameter is an effective displacement dynamic evaluation parameter for reservoir colluvium landslides, so it can be used in the prediction of the reservoir colluvium landslides.
| Carlà, T., Intrieri, E., Di Traglia, F., et al., 2017. Guidelines on the Use of Inverse Velocity Method as a Tool for Setting Alarm Thresholds and Forecasting Landslides and Structure Collapses. Landslides, 14(2): 517–534. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-016-0731-5 |
| Dai, T. F., Yi, Q. L., Hu, D. R., et al., 2014. The Application of Loading Unloading Response Ratio Theory to Stability Analysis of a Reservoir Type Landslide. Journal of China Three Gorges University (Natural Science), 36(1): 25–28. https://doi.org/10.13393/j.cnki.issn.1672-948x.2014.01.018 (in Chinese with English Abstract) |
| Di, B. F., Stamatopoulos, C. A., Stamatopoulos, A. C., et al., 2021. Proposal, Application and Partial Validation of a Simplified Expression Evaluating the Stability of Sandy Slopes under Rainfall Conditions. Geomorphology, 395: 107966. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2021.107966 |
| Dick, G. J., Eberhardt, E., Cabrejo-Liévano, A. G., et al., 2015. Development of an Early-Warning Time-of-Failure Analysis Methodology for Open-Pit Mine Slopes Utilizing Ground-Based Slope Stability Radar Monitoring Data. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 52(4): 515–529. https://doi.org/10.1139/cgj-2014-0028 |
| Guo, J., Xu, M., Zhang, Q., et al., 2020. Reservoir Regulation for Control of an Ancient Landslide Reactivated by Water Level Fluctuations in Heishui River, China. Journal of Earth Science, 31(6): 1058–1067. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12583-020-1341-7 |
| He, K. Q., Wang, S. Q., Du, W., et al., 2008. The Dynamic Parameter of Rainfall: Its Importance in the Prediction of Colluvial Landslides. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 67(3): 345–351. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-008-0143-4 |
| He, K. Q., Wang, S. Q., Du, W., et al., 2010. Dynamic Features and Effects of Rainfall on Landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China: Using the Xintan Landslide and the Large Huangya Landslide as the Examples. Environmental Earth Sciences, 59(6): 1267–1274. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-009-0114-5 |
| Huang, C. Z., 2011. Prediction of Landslide Time Under Action of Groundwater. Journal of Engineering Geology, 19(6): 816–822 (in Chinese with English Abstract) |
| Huang, F. M., Yin, K. L., Yang, B. B., et al., 2018. Step-Like Displacement Prediction of Landslide Based on Time Series Decomposition and Multivariate Chaotic Model. Earth Science, 43(3): 887–898. https://doi.org/10.3799/dpkx.2018.909 (in Chinese with English Abstract) |
| Huang, F. M., Chen, B., Mao, D. X., et al., 2023. Landslide Susceptibility Prediction Modeling and Interpretability Based on Self-Screening Deep Learning Model. Earth Science, 48 (5): 1696–1710. https://doi.org/10.3799/dqkx.2022.247 (in Chinese with English Abstract) |
| Iqbal, J., Dai, F. C., Hong, M., et al., 2018. Failure Mechanism and Stability Analysis of an Active Landslide in the Xiangjiaba Reservoir Area, Southwest China. Journal of Earth Science, 29(3): 646–661. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12583-017-0753-5 |
| Liao, K., Wu, Y. P., Miao, F. S., et al., 2020. Using a Kernel Extreme Learning Machine with Grey Wolf Optimization to Predict the Displacement of Step-Like Landslide. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 79(2): 673–685. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-019-01598-9 |
| Li, Q. Q., Huang, D., Pei, S. F., et al., 2021. Using Physical Model Experiments for Hazards Assessment of Rainfall-Induced Debris Landslides. Journal of Earth Science, 32(5): 1113–1128. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12583-020-1398-3 |
| Matsuura, S., 2000. Fluctuations of Pore-Water Pressure in a Landslide of Heavy Snow Districts. Landslides, 37(2): 10–19_1. https://doi.org/10.3313/jls1964.37.2_10 |
| Miao, S. J., Hao, X., Guo, X. L., et al., 2017. Displacement and Landslide Forecast Based on an Improved Version of Saito's Method Together with the Verhulst-Grey Model. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 10(3): 53. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-017-2838-y |
| Park, J. Y., Lee, S. R., Lee, D. H., et al., 2019. A Regional-Scale Landslide Early Warning Methodology Applying Statistical and Physically Based Approaches in Sequence. Engineering Geology, 260: 105193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2019.105193 |
| Rose, N. D., Hungr, O., 2007. Forecasting Potential Rock Slope Failure in Open Pit Mines Using the Inverse-Velocity Method. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences, 44(2): 308–320. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijrmms.2006.07.014 |
| Su, A. J., Feng, M. Q., Dong, S., et al., 2022. Improved Statically Solvable Slice Method for Slope Stability Analysis. Journal of Earth Science, 33(5): 1190–1203. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12583-022-1631-3 |
| Sun, D. L., Xu, J. H., Wen, H. J., et al., 2020. An Optimized Random Forest Model and Its Generalization Ability in Landslide Susceptibility Mapping: Application in Two Areas of Three Gorges Reservoir, China. Journal of Earth Science, 31(6): 1068–1086. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12583-020-1072-9 |
| Take, W. A., Bolton, M. D., Wong, P. C. P., et al., 2004. Evaluation of Landslide Triggering Mechanisms in Model Fill Slopes. Landslides, 1(3): 173–184. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-004-0025-1 |
| Tang, C. L., 2012. Mechanism Analysis about Load-Unload Response Ratio Theory in Prediction of Landslide. Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering, 8(3): 645–651. https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1673-0836.2012.03.033 (in Chinese with English Abstract) |
| Wang, J., Nie, G. G., Xue, C. H., 2020. Landslide Displacement Prediction Based on Time Series Analysis and Data Assimilation with Hydrological Factors. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 13(12): 460. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-05452-1 |
| Wang, L. N., Yan, E. C., Lu, W. B., et al., 2016. Load-Unload Reponse of Colluvial Landslides with Reservoir Water Level Fluctuation and Stability Prediction. Journal of Engineering Geology, 24(6): 1048–1055. https://doi.org/10.13544/j.cnki.jeg.2016.06.002 (in Chinese with English Abstract) |
| Xu, X. H., Shang, Y. Q., Wang, Y. C., 2011. Comprehensive Treatment and Evaluation Decision Method of Gravel Soil Landslide. Journal of Jilin University (Earth Science Edition), 41(2): 484–492. https://doi.org/10.13278/j.cnki.jjuese.2011.02.009 (in Chinese with English Abstract) |
| Yang, Z. Y., Pourghasemi, H. R., Lee, Y. H., 2016. Fractal Analysis of Rainfall-Induced Landslide and Debris Flow Spread Distribution in the Chenyulan Creek Basin, Taiwan. Journal of Earth Science, 27(1): 151–159. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12583-016-0633-4 |
| Zaki, A., Chai, H. K., Razak, H. A., et al., 2014. Monitoring and Evaluating the Stability of Soil Slopes: A Review on Various Available Methods and Feasibility of Acoustic Emission Technique. Comptes Rendus Géoscience, 346(9/10): 223–232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2014.01.003 |
| Zhang, W. J., Chen, Y. M., Zhan, L. T., 2006. Loading/Unloading Response Ratio Theory Applied in Predicting Deep-Seated Landslides Triggering. Engineering Geology, 82(4): 234–240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2005.11.005 |
| Zeng, P., Wang, Y, H., Zhang, T. L., et al., 2023. Parameter Back Analysis and Stability Prediction of Loess Landslide Based on NSGA-Ⅱ Genetic Algorithm. Earth Science, 48 (5): 1675–1685. https://doi.org/10.3799/dqkx.2023.034 (in Chinese with English Abstract) |
Figures(14) / Tables(4)
Copyright © 2013-2020 Journal of Earth Science 鄂ICP备15021562号-2
Tel: +86-27-67885075 Fax: +86-27-67885075 E-mail: xbb@cug.edu.cn
Address: Editorial Office of Journal, China University of Geosciences, Yujiashan, Wuhan, Hubei 430074, P. R. China
Supported by:
Beijing Renhe Information Technology Co. Ltd
E-mail:
info@rhhz.net
DownLoad:
