| Citation: | Xin Dai, Lunche Wang, Qian Cao, Zigeng Niu, Zengliang Luo, Yuhua Luo. Assessing the Hydrological and Social Effects of Three Gorges Reservoir Using a Modified SWAT Model. Journal of Earth Science, 2025, 36(4): 1793-1807. doi: 10.1007/s12583-024-0108-y
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As a crucial human activity, dam construction can profoundly impact the surface hydrology patterns. The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), as one of the largest hydraulic engineering projects in the world, has gained continuous attention for its eco-hydrological effects. However, further investigation is necessary to understand the runoff and social impacts of the TGR on the Upper Yangtze River. This study first employed a modified SWAT model to simulate runoff, compared scenarios with and without the TGR, and finally evaluated water supply and demand in the Upper Yangtze River. The results showed a significant increasing trend in the surface water area of the Upper Yangtze River from 2000–2020. The modified SWAT model performs well in simulating the runoff, with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency and Percent Bias improved by 0.04–0.30 and 2–31.90, respectively. Scenario simulation results revealed that the TGR reduced seasonal differences in runoff. During the flood season, the runoff volume at the Yichang Station in the scenario with the TGR is lower than in the scenario without the TGR, peaking at 4 500 m3/s. Conversely, in the dry season, the runoff volume of the scenario with TGR is higher, with a maximum increase of 1 500 m3/s. The region exhibiting the greatest runoff variations is the Yangtze River's main stem in the Three Gorges Reservoir region. Besides, the TGR notably alleviated the water supply-demand imbalance in Chongqing during the winter and spring seasons, with a maximum increase of 0.16 in the supply-demand index. This study can contribute significantly to understanding the natural and social impacts of the TGR from the perspective of hydrological and scenario simulation.
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