Seismogenic potential and seismic hazard of normal faults in the Southern Tibetan Rift Zones

The Southern Tibetan Rift Zones (STRZ) comprise eight approximately N-S trending rifts， constituting an extensional tectonic zone within the Tibetan Plateau. The northern and southern boundaries of the STRZ are constrained by major strike-slip and thrust faults， respectively. But within the STRZ， this region features numerous normal faults and has experienced frequent large earthquakes， leading to significant seismic disasters since the Late Quaternary， exemplified by the Mw7.1 Dingri earthquake on January 7， 2025. To assess the seismogenic potential and seismic hazard posed by these normal faults， we delineated 92 fault segments and estimated their maximum potential seismic magnitudes using empirical relationships between surface rupture length and moment magnitude. Results indicate that the maximum magnitudes of these faults range between Mw6.5 and Mw7.5， with higher seismogenic potential predominantly observed in the eastern rifts. Historical seismic gaps and stress interactions， such as accelerated Coulomb stress loading following the 2015 Nepal Mw7.8 earthquake， further emphasize the seismic risks within the STRZ， especially along the Dingri-Nyalam Rift zone and Xiongqu Fault. This study highlights the importance of continuous monitoring of stress accumulation and fault interactions to mitigate future seismic hazards.