| Citation: | Changdong Li, Huiming Tang, Xinli Hu, Dongming Li, Bin Hu. Landslide Prediction Based on Wavelet Analysis and Cusp Catastrophe. Journal of Earth Science, 2009, 20(6): 971-977. doi: 10.1007/s12583-009-0082-4
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During the monitoring engineering of landslides, the monitoring data of accumulated displacement are usually affected by the external factors. Therefore, the displacement curve always has step-like character, which brings some difficulties to the accurate prediction of landslides. In order to solve this problem, based on the wavelet analysis and cusp catastrophe, a new kind of analysis method is proposed in this article. First, Fourier transform method can be used to extract the frequency component of the curve of monitoring displacement. Second, the wavelet transform was adopted to inspect the breakpoints of signals, which can be used to analyze the cause of the occurrence of the step-like character in the curve of landslide monitoring. Based on the cusp catastrophe theory, a nonlinear dynamic model was established to conduct the simulation calculation of time forecasting of landslides. According to a case study of landslide, the periodical rainfall and reservoir level fluctuation are the main factors leading to the step-like changes in the curve of monitoring displacement. In addition, the results of simulation calculation are in agreement with the fact of local failure of landslides. This method can provide a new analysis way for the time prediction of landslides.
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