Figure
1.
The distribution of drainage pattern in Yanggong River basin.
| Citation: | Yuanqing He, Tao Pu, Zongxing Li, Guofeng Zhu, Shijin Wang, Ningning Zhang, Shuxin Wang, Huijuan Xin, Wilfred H Theakstone, Jiankuo Du. Climate Change and Its Effect on Annual Runoff in Lijiang Basin-Mt. Yulong Region, China. Journal of Earth Science, 2010, 21(2): 137-147. doi: 10.1007/s12583-010-0012-5
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The past century has witnessed the fact of global warming (Qin et al., 2007). According to IPCC Report (2007), the global annual temperature in the past 100 years (1906–2005) increased by 0.74 ℃. Under the background of the global warming, the annual average temperature in China increased significantly over the past century, particularly remarkable with the warming rate of 0.22 ℃/10 a over the past 50 years. The change is coinstantaneous with that in the global or Northern Hemisphere in the same period to a certain extent, but also has its own characteristics (Ding et al., 2006). The climatic change would influence the global hydrological cycle (Kundzewicz, 2007; Ye et al., 2006; Legesse et al., 2003). Reported uneven water allocation and drought and flood have raised the concern of how the hydrological cycles have been affected by regional climate change, such as the temporal and spatial redistribution of precipitation, snow accumulation, melting and evaporation, and reciprocal transformation between surface water and groundwater (Li W H et al., 2006; Milly et al., 2005). The water cycle has been promoted more intensely by temperature increasing, which has a significant impact on regional water resource mainly supplied by glacier and snow melting (Li et al., 2009, 2008; He et al., 2008; Shao et al., 2008). Regional allocation of water resources and management mode and strategy were directly affected by monthly and yearly change of snowmelt runoff resources caused by snow cover (Liu, 2004; Wang et al., 2001). As the global warming issue has led to more and more concern of all circles in society, to address the concern and related issues, it is conductive to know the climate change and how water resources respond to regional climate change.
Under the dominance of south Asian monsoon, China's temperate glaciers are distributed on Hengduan Mountains Range, southeast of Tibetan plateau, the middle part and southern slope of Himalaya Mountains as well as the middle and eastern parts of Mt. Nyainqentanglha. There are 8 607 glaciers in the region accounting for 22.2% of the total glacier area in China (Pang et al., 2006; Shi et al., 2000). These glaciers with high accumulation rate and intense melt are very sensitive to climate change. Studies have shown that glacier changes caused by global climate change have a great impact on surface runoff (Singh and Bengtsson, 2004; Kaser et al., 2003). He and Zhang (2004) and He et al. (2003) suggested that the continuing rise in temperature led to remarkable glacier retreat especially in monsoonal temperature glacier area. Studies also show that glacier-runoff system is highly sensitive to global climate change (Li et al., 2009). It is worthy to investigate hydrology and water resource problem in the typical monsoon temperate glacier areas resulting from climate change, which is little in the present study. With Lijiang basin as the study area, this article focuses on analyzing the change characters of climate and water resources, discoursing on the response of water cycle system, and forecasting the impact of future climate change upon water resources so as to supply decision-making reference for local development.
Located in the southernmost of Hengduan Mountains Range, Yunnan Province, Mt. Yulong (27°10'–27°40'N, 100°9'–100°20'E) with the peak 5 596 m a.s.l. is a typical monsoonal temperate glacier region in China. There are 19 temperate glaciers on the mountain, which are controlled by the southwest monsoon climate with a total catchment area 11.61 km2. The largest Baishui Glacier No. 1 (length 2.7 km, area 1.52 km2) distributes in the eastern slope of the mountain (Fig. 1). Lijiang basin is just only 25 km north from Mt. Yulong with the elevation of 2 393 m a.s.l.. The study area belongs to monsoonal climate region and abounds in rain as a result of the southwest monsoon and southeast monsoon. Precipitation is subject to sharp monthly fluctuation and mainly concentrates from May to October. The mean annual temperature in Lijiang City is 12.6 ℃, and the monthly mean temperature is often above 0 ℃ throughout the whole year (Li et al., 2008).
The permeability is strong, and the soil layer is thin due to the extensive karst distributed in this region, leading to relatively rapid groundwater cycle. Much water from the ground gushes into Lijiang basin with many springs in the basin. The Heilongtan and Qingxi springs in the north of Lijiang City are the two relative larger ones in the basin (Fig. 1). In addition, the ice-snow meltwater from the south glaciers of Mt. Yulong also run into Lijiang basin. Then the scattered surface runoff distributes in the broad and flat basin and finally flows southward into Yanggong River. Located in the southern outlet of Lijiang basin, the Mujiaqiao Hydrological Station, which was established on the Yanggong River in 1979, drains an area of 436.8 km2 (Fig. 1). Therefore, the flux in Mujiaqiao Station represents the total Lijiang basin runoff.
Daily temperature and precipitation for 1979– 2006 in this study were collected from Lijiang Weather Station located in Lijiang basin. The monthly and annual temperature and precipitation were then established from the collected data.
Daily runoff data of the Yanggong River catchment were collected for the same period from Mujiaqiao Hydrological Station situated at the outlets of Lijiang basin (Yanggong River catchment). According to these data, we analyzed the climatic variation of temperature and precipitation from 1979 to 2006. In addition, runoff data from Mujiaqiao Hydrological Station and their response to climate change were studied with the following model and analysis methods.
(1) For analyzing and predicting climatic changing tendency of recent years, a commonly used statistical model to observe time series trend was adopted to analyze the precipitation, temperature and runoff trend
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where Yt is the measured values of runoff, precipitation and temperature; Et is the random variable, which is usually assumed to be in stationary random process with the mean value 0; b is the dip ratio, whose sign represents the change tendency, and the absolute value represents the extent of change; t is the time; a is the regression constant. The coefficient is estimated according to the principle of least square method.
(2) According to water balance theory (Rui, 2004), the amount of water in an area is equal to the difference value between water storage and consumption. Supposed that the study area is a closed catchment basin, whose water losses flowing from the study catchment basin and gains flowing into the study catchment basin cancel each other out in a certain time period. The runoff (R) is the sum of surface runoff (Rsurf) and groundwater runoff (Runder). The water balance model of a catchment basin is as follows
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where P is the measured value of precipitation; and E is the value of evaporation in the study area.
In conclusion, this article selects monthly precipitation and temperature data in Lijiang basin to analyze regional climate and runoff characters of an-nual and seasonal. The time series of annual and seasonal temperature anomaly and the percent of precipitation departure were constructed. Runoff data of the recent 28 years were used to study the change. Based on the above study, correlation analysis and water balance theory, the response of runoff in Lijiang basin to climate change was investigated.
Annual and seasonal average temperatures from Lijiang basin are shown in Table 1. The mean annual temperature of the study area has increased since the 1980s. From 1980s to the early 1990s, temperature was in a relatively low state, negative anomaly. Then the temperature anomaly was positive. In contrast, it is evident that the mean annual temperature has been in observably increasing trend since the mid-1990s, and the upward trend was more significant at the beginning of the 21st century. Comparisons of the temperature anomaly during 2000–2006, 1995–2006 and 1990–2006 indicate that the amplitude of variation was greater in 2000–2006, with an evident upward trend at the end of the 20th century. What's more, diversity of variation existed in different seasons. The temperature in winter had been changing at the highest rate, whereas spring and autumn came next, and summer had the lowest change rate of temperature.
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Synchronized with global warming, the annual average temperature in Lijiang basin during 1979–2006 increased remarkably (Fig. 2Ie). A tendency for temperature fluctuation has been observed in the 1980s, when the temperature increased in the early period and decreased in the later period. Since the 1990s, temperature has been increasing continually. As shown in Fig. 1, the annual average temperature in Lijiang basin was in a relatively cold period during 1979–1995 and in warm period during 1996–2006, in terms of 28 years average annual value. The change rate of temperature is 0.314 ℃/10 a, which passes through the significance testing of 0.01 level (α=0.01), indicating that the change of temperature in the study area is evident, confirming the fact of climate warming. According to analysis, the maximum of temperature occurred in 2006 (14.17 ℃) while the minimum occurred in 1990 (12.08 ℃), which is consistent with the result from Li Q X et al. (2006).
Variation trends of temperature in different seasons were similar to that of mean annual temperature, whose characteristics were shown as follows.
(1) Temperatures in winter (December–February of the next year). As is shown in Fig. 2Id, winters of Lijiang basin have been exposed in a significant temperature increase since the 1980s. The inclination rate of 0.55 ℃/10 a, which shows that the temperature of winter increased by 0.55 ℃ per ten years, is the most evident in the four seasons.
(2) Temperatures in spring (March–May). Figure 2Ia depicts the temperature changes with an upward trend in spring in the study area, whose rate of inclination is 0.31 ℃/10 a, which is lower than the value of winter. The characteristics of change are as follows: the temperatures from 1980s to the beginning of 1990s were in relatively cooling phases, while the later 1990s in warming phases, of which temperature reached to the peak value in 1999.
(3) Temperatures in summer (June–August). Compared to other seasons, the temperatures of summer in Lijiang basin change in a weak tendency, with the lowest inclination of 0.06 ℃/10 a. From Fig. 2Ib, two relatively warm phases and one cool phase have been observed in summers in the region: since the early 1980s, temperatures of Lijiang basin were higher than the average. From the late 1980s to 2004, the temperature, in an obvious fluctuation, was in relatively cool period. The temperature had been above average since 2004.
(4) Temperatures in autumn (September–January). The temperature change rate of climate in autumn tends to be 0.34 ℃/10 a. Its amplitude of variation is slightly higher than that of spring, but far less than that of winter. As Fig. 2Ic shows, since the early 1990s, temperatures in autumn have been continuing to be in high state.
Overall, warming trend in summer is slower than the other seasons, with its anomaly transiting into positive in the 21st century. Temperature increase is significant in winter, spring and autumn, with its temperature being positive anomalies in the late 1990s, indicating that a general warming in the study area has been observed since the middle 1990s.
Statistics analysis suggests that the average precipitation from 1979 to 2006 in Lijiang basin is 985.5 mm. Furthermore, the early 1980s, when the turnaround of precipitation anomalies from negative to positive happened, is the turning period of precipitation.
The precipitation, with positive anomaly, has been in an upward trend at a relatively great rate since the 1990s. Table 2 depicts that precipitation in the 1980s declined by 11.3%. From the late 1980s to the prophase of 1990s, precipitation increased by 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively. From 1995 to 1999, the precipitation, respectively, increased by 8.7%. However, precipitation in Lijiang basin increased by 9.1% from 2000 to 2006. Comparisons of anomaly from 1990 to 2006 and from 1995 to 2006 confirmed that it is in the latter period that the annual precipitation increased at a relatively great rate and reached the most significant rate in the 21st century.
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Since the 1980s, annual precipitation in Lijiang basin has been in fluctuations with an upward trend (Fig. 2II). Figure 2IIe shows that Lijiang basin was in brief rain period from 1979 to 1992 and was in pluvial period from 1996 to 2006. Precipitation reached the maximum value of 1 283.4 mm in 1999, and then the increasing trend up in the 21st century. Moreover, precipitations in 2005 and 2006 are lower than the average level. It is obvious that an increasing tendency for precipitation has been observed in the region. However, the trend was not obvious; it did not pass through the significance testing of 0.05 level (α=0.05) which means precipitation in Lijiang basin has been relatively stable, with weakly increasing trend. The observed data show that the most humid year is 1999 (1 283.4 mm), while the driest year is 1983 (684.1 mm).
Precipitation variations in different seasons have a significant difference with annual change, specifically as follows.
(1) Precipitation in winter (December–February of the next year). As Fig. 2IId shows, precipitation of winter in Lijiang basin fluctuated with a drop trend, contrary to the annual precipitation changing trend. Precipitation anomaly in the early 1980s and the early 1990s was positive and was negative in the late 1980s and the late 1990s. An increase of precipitation from 2000 to 2004 was observed. However, precipitation experienced a further drop in 2005 and 2006. The change rate of precipitation in winter tends to be 1.99 mm/10 a, which means precipitation of the season declines 1.99 mm/10 a.
(2) Precipitation in spring (March–May). In common with the annual trend, precipitation in spring increased significantly at a higher rate compared with winter (Fig. 2IIa). Spring precipitation has gone through three periods: the 1980s was a period of relatively low precipitation, a negative anomaly phase when precipitation increases. The change rate in the 1990s, with little fluctuation in precipitation, corresponds to the multi-year mean value. The precipitation anomaly turned to positive and increased continuously. However, the trend tends to slower upward tendency in 2004 and 2005.
(3) Precipitation in summer (June–August). Figure 2IIb depicts a continuous upward trend in precipitation in summer of Lijiang basin, which was consonant with the spring trend. In addition, the increasing rate of summer was lower. The anomaly of precipitation in 1980s was negative and then turned to positive in the early 1990s. Precipitation from 1990 to 2006 increased by about 6.6%, relative to the long-time average annual value.
(4) Precipitation in autumn (September–January). A downward trend has been observed in the study area in autumn and winter in recent years, but the change rate of autumn was smaller than winter. Figure 2IIc shows that the anomaly of autumn precipitation was negative in the early 1980s, which was positive in the late 1980s, and then the performance declined and turned into the stage of negative anomalies in the middle 1990s.
All in all, during the evolution of seasonal precipitation, precipitations in spring and summer tend to linear positive trend from 1980s, while precipitation in autumn and winter decreased. In addition, spring experienced the most significant amplitude of variation; winter came next, while summer and autumn experienced the lowest.
The negative runoff depth anomaly percent in the 1980s in Yanggong River catchment confirmed that runoff was little during the period. Runoff began to increase since the 1990s when the anomaly was positive. With the comparison of long-time average annual value, runoff decreased by 43.9% and 16.8%, respectively, during the incipient stage of the 1980s and the late 1980s. However, runoff increased by 0.7% in the early 1990s. Then runoff in the study area increased by 21.9% in the late 1990s. Moreover, from 2000 to 2006 runoff increased by 26.1% when the first five years experienced the most obvious change. In addition, comparisons of anomaly from 2000 to 2006, from 1990 to 2006 and from 1995 to 2006 confirm that runoff increased at a relatively significant rate in the late 1990s and the 21st century.
The analytical results show that the average runoff depth from 1979 to 2006 in Yanggong River catchment is 416.3 mm. With great annual change, runoff depth has been in a significant increasing tendency and goes up to its highest level (734.8 mm) in high flow years. However, the value can dropped to its lowest level (111.4 mm) in dry years. In addition to autumn, runoff in other seasons changed remarkably with different amplitudes (Table 3).
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(1) Runoff in winter (December–February of the next year). According to statistical analysis from Fig. 2IIId, runoff in winter in Yanggong River catchment has been in a steady increase trend since the early 1980s and changed at the biggest rate in the 21st century. The annual average runoff in winter during 2000 to 2006 increased by 40.3%, compared with normal value of accumulated year.
(2) Runoff in spring (March–May). From Fig. 2IIIa, we can see that among the four seasons, runoff in spring has been in the most significant increasing trend. Under the background of spring warming and precipitation increasing, runoff in spring increased from the 1990s. However, the rate of runoff change is greater than the variation rate of precipitation.
(3) Runoff in summer (June–August). Figure 2IIIb displays that runoff in summer in recent years changed with an upward trend. However, the rate was smaller than that of spring. Runoff anomalies in summer turned into positive in the early 1990s, and the amplitude gradually increased, which was 27.6% during 1995 to 2006.
(4) Runoff in autumn (September–January). Compared with other seasons, runoff in autumn changed at the smallest rate. Figure 2IIIc shows that runoff in autumn increased by 13.7% from the late 1990s to 2006.
The seasonal varieties of runoff, in accordance with the annual varieties, have been in the same changing trend. However, the runoff anomalies in autumn, being negative in the late 1980s, advance five years compared with other seasons. During the four seasons, spring experienced the most significant increase, and autumn experienced the smallest.
The impact of climate change on monthly runoff distribution primarily depends on climatic factors and its monthly variation such as precipitation and temperature (Zhang and Wang, 2007). Figure 3a depicts the monthly runoff distribution due to the variation of climatic factors. As can be seen, the change trend during different decades is consistent. But the duration of maximum changed. The minimum and peak values were of May and October, respectively, in the 1980s. However, the stream of the study area reached their annual peak flow up to a month earlier. That is, the minimum and peak values were of April and September, respectively, in the 1990s and 21st century. Statistics show that the distribution of runoff is very uneven during a year. Runoff from November to April of the next year in different decades decreased weakly and reached its minimum value in April. With significant change, the runoff in flood season occurred from May to October and began to increase sharply from June and reached its peak in September. Then runoff was in a downward trend which would increase commonly in May of the next year. In addition, runoff in the flood period, which was 72.69% of the annual amount, is double more than the figure of the non-flood season (more than twice the runoff of the non-flood season). The change of the duration of peak illuminated the runoff response to climate change, which will be discussed (go into details below) as follows.
There are many factors affecting the water cycle, such as meteorological factors, natural and geographical conditions, human activities and geographical location, of which meteorological factors, discussed in this article as far as its impact on runoff, are the main factors. Precipitation, temperature, and evaporation constitute the main meteorological factors, among which evaporation is influenced by precipitation and temperature. Therefore, studying the impact of precipitation and temperature on the runoff process is very important.
According to survey, runoff in Yanggong River is a mixture of precipitation, groundwater and ice-snow meltwater, whereas precipitation is the main supply. Thus, it is necessary for us to study precipitation contribution to runoff. Analysis revealed that the historical variation trends of runoff in Yanggong River catchment were similar to that of annual precipitation (Fig. 3b). The correlation coefficient passing through the significance testing of 0.01 levels proved that the two changed with a highly consistent trend. Wet and low waters in the study area are mainly controlled by precipitation.
Table 4 shows the correlation coefficient between precipitation and discharge flows over the corresponding period in Lijiang basin. From the analysis, we can see that the contribution of precipitation to discharge mainly concentrated in the rainy season (May–October), when correlation coefficient of the corresponding period is in a good performance. The correlation coefficient in June, July, August and October passes through the significance testing of 0.001 level, particularly marked in July, when the characteristics of May and September pass through the significance testing of 0.01 level, suggesting in the rainy season precipitation supply as the main source of runoff, while in May and September, in addition to precipitation, the snow and ice melt water supply is relatively important.
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In order to reveal the predictability of precipitation, this article goes a step further to study the lag relationship between runoff and precipitation. Due to length limitation, only the lag correlation coefficient between the precipitation of July and discharge of the next six months lag are respectively proved in Table 5. It shows that the correlation coefficient of precipitation in July and discharge of different lag periods pass through the significance testing of 0.001 level, which means discharge of six lag months or even more long periods would change in an obvious rate with the change of precipitation in July. Therefore, accurate prediction of precipitation in July would be a good strategy guide for the allocation of latter water resources.
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In addition, the distribution of precipitation and discharge in a year embodies its close relationship (Fig. 3c). With comparison of monthly variation, we find that discharge tended to decrease from January to April and reached the minimum value in April due to the little rainfall, though the total precipitation increased faintly. Precipitation and discharge showed an upward trend from May. Precipitation reached its peak in July and discharge in September, suggesting the peak of runoff lag precipitation peak two months. Moreover, active ice-snow meltwater in August and September made a great contribution to the peak of flow in September. Then both were in downward trend.
The temperature has an impact on runoff mainly via controlling the period of glacier and snow melting (Ye et al., 1999). Analysis of correlation between temperature and discharge (Table 4) shows that correlation coefficients between temperature and discharge over the corresponding period from April to September all pass through the significance testing of 0.05 level in addition to September. That means the effect of temperature on discharge in Lijiang basin is marked. Furthermore, the correlation between temperature and discharge in April is positive while the others are negative. Table 3 shows a high correlation coefficient in April, and putting two and two together shows that it may be due to the period of glacier and snow melting directly affected by changes in temperature. From contrastive study, temperature in April is the main controlling factor for runoff of the study area, since the study area in recent years undergoes an increase of precipitation in April, but on average, the monthly precipitation is too little to be significantly related to runoff.
For further analysis of the lag correlation between temperature and runoff, this article calculated the lag correlation coefficient between the average temperature and discharge of one month lag. The result shows that the average temperature in April makes the strongest impact on discharge in May (the lag correlation coefficient is 0.59) while the lag correlation coefficients in May and September are also significant under the 0.05 confidence level (the correlation coefficients are -0.45 and -0.36). According to survey, April of the study area is the main melt time. The higher temperature in April led to the beginning of snow melting period in advance, which will lead to an increase in runoff in May. The correlation of temperature in June and July with runoff in the same periods and that in July and August is not significant. This may be related to the complex distribution of average temperature, precipitation, evaporation or even ice-snow meltwater in the study area. The particular reasons will be studied subsequently. Runoff in September reaches its peak of a year, when the glacier meltwater supply is important. The lower temperature would cause the period of glacier melt to sign off early and runoff decrease in October, and vice versa, which means positive correlation between the two. It is proved that the impact of temperature on runoff has different performance in different months.
The above analysis fully proved that precipitation is the most important factor impacting surface discharge in the study area, but increase in ice-snow meltwater resulted from the climate warming fact, and evaporation changes cannot be ignored. Therefore, Yanggong River catchment discharge in recent 30 years increased as the result of the combined effect of river supply, such as the increase of precipitation and meltwater from glaciers, snow and permafrost caused by rising temperatures. The contribution made by meltwater to runoff remains to be further studied.
(1) Under the background of global warming, the past 28 years have witnessed the fact of significant temperature upward with fluctuation in Lijiang basin. According to preceding analysis, the increase of winter temperature was the most at the level of 0.55 ℃/10 a.
(2) The annual precipitation varied with a slightly upward trend in the past 28 years. However, there are notable differences between different seasons. Precipitation increase occurred in spring and summer, whereas the decrease occurred in autumn and winter. In addition, spring experienced the most significant amplitude of variation, winter came next. Summer and autumn experienced the lowest.
(3) The streamflow at Yanggong River showed a significant increasing trend in the past 28 years, of which increase rate is greater than precipitation. During the four seasons, spring experienced the most significant increase and autumn experienced the smallest. The tendency of runoff change comes in line with the precipitation in spring and summer, but the two go in opposite tendency in summer and winter. In winter and spring, the recharge of runoff by precipitation is little.
(4) Correlation analysis proved that precipitation is the most important factor affecting runoff in the study area embodied in rainy season. Nevertheless, the effect of temperature on runoff especially in non-flood season should not be neglected.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40971019), the West Light Foundation of Chinese Academy of Sci-ences (No. O828A11001), the National Basic Re-search Program of China (No. 2007CB411501), the Special Grant for Postgraduate Research, Innovation and Practice, the Major Directionality Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX-YW-317), the Fund from the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, and the Fund from Lijiang City Government.| Ding, Y. H., Ren, G. Y., Shi, G. Y., et al., 2006. National Assessment Report of Climate Change (I): Climate Change in China and Its Future Trend. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2(1): 3–8 (in Chinese) |
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Yuanqing He, Tao Pu, Zongxing Li, Guofeng Zhu, Shijin Wang, Ningning Zhang, Shuxin Wang, Huijuan Xin, Wilfred H Theakstone, Jiankuo Du. Climate Change and Its Effect on Annual Runoff in Lijiang Basin-Mt. Yulong Region, China. Journal of Earth Science, 2010, 21(2): 137-147. doi: 10.1007/s12583-010-0012-5
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