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Volume 25 Issue 4
Aug 2014
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Journal of Earth Science  > 2014  >  25(4): 757-763.
Shaojie Zhang, Hongjuan Yang, Fangqiang Wei, Yuhong Jiang, Dunlong Liu. A Model of Debris Flow Forecast Based on the Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism. Journal of Earth Science, 2014, 25(4): 757-763. doi: 10.1007/s12583-014-0463-1
Citation: Shaojie Zhang, Hongjuan Yang, Fangqiang Wei, Yuhong Jiang, Dunlong Liu. A Model of Debris Flow Forecast Based on the Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism. Journal of Earth Science, 2014, 25(4): 757-763. doi: 10.1007/s12583-014-0463-1
shu

A Model of Debris Flow Forecast Based on the Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism

doi: 10.1007/s12583-014-0463-1
  • 1.

    Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, 610041, China

  • 2.

    Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu, 610041, China

More Information
  • Corresponding author: Fangqiang WEI, fqwei@imde.ac.cn
  • Received Date: 15 Jan 2013
  • Accepted Date: 20 Apr 2013
  • Publish Date: 01 Aug 2014
    Abstract
  • Debris flow forecast is an important means of disaster mitigation. However, the accuracy of the statistics-based debris flow forecast is unsatisfied while the mechanism-based forecast is unavailable at the watershed scale because most of existing researches on the initiation mechanism of debris flow took a single slope as the main object. In order to solve this problem, this paper developed a model of debris flow forecast based on the water-soil coupling mechanism at the watershed scale. In this model, the runoff and the instable soil caused by the rainfall in a watershed is estimated by the distributed hydrological model (GBHM) and an instable identification model of the unsaturated soil. Because the debris flow is a special fluid composed of soil and water and has a bigger density, the density estimated by the runoff and instable soil mass in a watershed under the action of a rainfall is employed as a key factor to identify the formation probability of debris flow in the forecast model. The Jiangjia Gulley, a typical debris flow valley with a several debris flow events each year, is selected as a case study watershed to test this forecast model of debris flow. According the observation data of Dongchuan Debris Flow Observation and Research Station, CAS located in Jiangjia Gulley, there were 4 debris flow events in 2006. The test results show that the accuracy of the model is satisfied.

     

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