| Citation: | Zhongmin Mao, Yuyong Jiao, Fei Tan, Qi Xin, Zeng Cong. Susceptibility Mapping of Ground Collapse Caused by Anthropogenic Activities. Journal of Earth Science, 2025, 36(3): 1168-1180. doi: 10.1007/s12583-022-1644-y
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With the rapid urbanization process, ground collapses caused by anthropogenic activities occur frequently. Accurate susceptibility mapping is of great significance for disaster prevention and control. In this study, 1 198 ground collapse cases in Shenzhen from 2017 to 2020 were collected. Eight effective factors (elevation, relief, clay proportion, average annual precipitation, distance from water, land use type, building density, and road density) were selected to construct the evaluation index system. Ground collapse susceptibility was analyzed and mapped using the normalized frequency ratio (NFR), logistic regression (LR), and NFR-LR coupling models. Finally, the result rationality and performance of the three models were compared through frequency ratio (FR) and ROC curve. The results indicate that all three models can effectively evaluate the ground collapse susceptibility (AUC > 0.7), and the NFR-LR model result is more rational and has the best performance (AUC = 0.791). The very high and high susceptibility zones cover a total area of 545.68 km2 and involve Nanshan, Luohu, and Futian District, as well as some areas of Baoan, Guangming, and Longgang District. The ground collapses in Shenzhen mainly occurred in the built-up areas, and the greater intensity of anthropogenic activities, the more susceptible to the disaster.
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