Quick Prediction of Earthquake Ground Shaking Intensity Using High-Rate GNSS: A Case Study of the 2021 <i>M</i>w 7.3 Maduo Earthquake

Zhiyu Gao; Yanchuan Li; Xinjian Shan; Chuanchao Huang; Xing Huang; Kai Zheng; Bo Li

doi:10.1007/s12583-023-1854-y

Volume 37 Issue 1

Feb 2026

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Journal of Earth Science > 2026 > 37(1): 351-360.

Zhiyu Gao, Yanchuan Li, Xinjian Shan, Chuanchao Huang, Xing Huang, Kai Zheng, Bo Li. Quick Prediction of Earthquake Ground Shaking Intensity Using High-Rate GNSS: A Case Study of the 2021 Mw 7.3 Maduo Earthquake. Journal of Earth Science, 2026, 37(1): 351-360. doi: 10.1007/s12583-023-1854-y

Citation:

Zhiyu Gao, Yanchuan Li, Xinjian Shan, Chuanchao Huang, Xing Huang, Kai Zheng, Bo Li. Quick Prediction of Earthquake Ground Shaking Intensity Using High-Rate GNSS: A Case Study of the 2021 Mw 7.3 Maduo Earthquake. Journal of Earth Science, 2026, 37(1): 351-360. doi: 10.1007/s12583-023-1854-y

Citation:

Zhiyu Gao, Yanchuan Li, Xinjian Shan, Chuanchao Huang, Xing Huang, Kai Zheng, Bo Li. Quick Prediction of Earthquake Ground Shaking Intensity Using High-Rate GNSS: A Case Study of the 2021 Mw 7.3 Maduo Earthquake. Journal of Earth Science, 2026, 37(1): 351-360. doi: 10.1007/s12583-023-1854-y

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Quick Prediction of Earthquake Ground Shaking Intensity Using High-Rate GNSS: A Case Study of the 2021 Mw 7.3 Maduo Earthquake

doi: 10.1007/s12583-023-1854-y

Zhiyu Gao^{1, 2, 5, 6
,},
Yanchuan Li^{1
,
,
,},
Xinjian Shan^1
,,
Chuanchao Huang^1
,,
Xing Huang^1
,,
Kai Zheng^3
,,
Bo Li^4
,

1.
State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics and Forecasting, Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100029, China
2.
Faculty of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730700, China
3.
School of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China
4.
Earthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China
5.
National-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and Applications for National Geographic State Monitoring, Lanzhou 730700, China
6.
Key Laboratory of Science and Technology in Surveying & Mapping, Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730070, China

More Information

Corresponding author: Yanchuan Li, yanchuan@ies.ac.cn
Received Date: 21 Mar 2023
Accepted Date: 16 May 2023

Available Online: 13 Feb 2026

Issue Publish Date: 28 Feb 2026

Abstract

Abstract

Seismic intensity is critical for post-earthquake hazard assessment and response, but is often delayed because field surveys are required. Here, we propose a simple scheme for quick prediction of earthquake ground shaking intensity using high-rate Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data. In the scheme, high-rate GNSS displacement waveforms and static GNSS coseismic offsets are first used to invert the fault rupture process based on a one-fault model. The kinematic slip model is then employed as input for kinematic forward simulation to predict strong ground motion, which is subsequently convert into seismic intensities according to the China seismic intensity scale (GB/T 17742–2020). We take the 2021 Mw 7.3 Maduo Earthquake as a case study to illustrate the feasibility of this scheme. Our results show that the seismic intensity produced by the one-fault model is consistent with that from field investigations, especially in meizoseismal zones, suggesting that the scheme may serve as a potential solution for quick prediction of seismic intensity, which helps to disaster relief efforts after strong earthquakes.
- high-rate GNSS,
- quick prediction of surface intensity,
- Maduo Earthquake,
- kinematic rupture process

Electronic Supplementary Materials: Supplementary materials (Texts S1–S2, Figures S1–S4) are available in the online version of this article at https://doi.org/10.1007/s12583-023-1854-y.
Conflict of Interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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References(55)

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Quick Prediction of Earthquake Ground Shaking Intensity Using High-Rate GNSS: A Case Study of the 2021 Mw 7.3 Maduo Earthquake

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