| Citation: | He Du, Shouyu Xu, Jianwei Feng, Shuizhen Liu, Xiang Gao. Quantitative Prediction of Multi-Period Tight Sandstone Fractures in Thrust-Fold Belt Based on Minimum Energy Dissipation Theory in Kuqa Depression of Tarim Basin. Journal of Earth Science, 2026, 37(4): 1639-1653. doi: 10.1007/s12583-024-0019-y
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Deep tight sandstone reservoirs in the thrust-fold belt of the Kuqa depression, Tarim Basin, host substantial oil and gas resources. Structural fractures are the dominant reservoir space and seepage pathways in these tight reservoirs, yet their multi-periodic development and strong heterogeneity caused by multi-stage tectonic compression make accurate quantitative prediction extremely difficult. This study aims to establish a quantitative prediction method for multi-period tight sandstone fractures based on the minimum energy dissipation theory, targeting the Bozi Gas Field in the Kuqa depression. We first constructed a fine 3D geological model based on tectonic, drilling and logging data, then simulated the paleotectonic stress fields of key fracture-forming periods via 3D finite element analysis, and finally built a quantitative fracture parameter model of Bozi Gas Field by integrating the minimum energy dissipation theory with key fracture-controlling factors (thrust-fold structure, faults and lithology). The results show that the overlying thrust structure is the dominant control on the paleotectonic stress field distribution under intense tectonic compression, and the simulated fracture linear density shows a strong positive correlation with FMI logging interpretation results. The simulation result fully verifies the high accuracy and reliability of the method. This method provides critical guidance for tight gas exploration and development in the Kuqa depression, and a reference for fracture prediction in similar thrust-fold belts globally.
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