| Citation: | Yingli Niu, Fei Xie, Yan Xia, Na Liu, Yuanyuan Han. Rise in Stratospheric Water Vapor over the Past Two Decades: An Association with Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature. Journal of Earth Science, 2026, 37(4): 1976-1985. doi: 10.1007/s12583-024-1988-6
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Variations in stratospheric water vapor (SWV) impact not only dynamic and chemical stratospheric processes but also the rate of global warming by influencing the Earth's energy budget. Multiple observations have indicated a significant increasing trend in SWV since 2005. Here, using both observations and idealized sensitivity experiments with a numerical model, we find that the warming in the tropical Atlantic is the main contributor to the increasing SWV trend since 2005. The warming of both the tropical Indian and Atlantic oceans elicits a Gill-Matsuno response, and the tropopause warming caused by Atlantic warming is located over the Indo-Pacific warm pool, which tends to efficiently increase the SWV after 2005. The North Pacific warming, which weakens the Hadley cell, results in a reduction in the tropical tropopause height and consequential tropopause warming, especially over the warm pool, which also contributes to the SWV increase.
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