| Citation: | Dejun Wang, Fenglin Lyu, Xiaoxue Gao, Xiaohuan Hou, Qian Xiong, Hua Zhang. Hydroclimatic Evolution of Saline Lake Lopnur during the Mid to Late Holocene and Its Implications for Paleo-Environmental Complexity. Journal of Earth Science, 2026, 37(1): 251-268. doi: 10.1007/s12583-025-0292-4
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Exploring hydroclimatic variability and its driving mechanisms during the Holocene is essential for comprehending both historical and prospective responses of water resources to climatic shifts in Arid Central Asia (ACA) region. However, debate persists regarding whether dryland lakes in this region exhibited aridification or humidification during the Holocene. Lopnur serves as the terminal lake of Tarim rivers during the Holocene, which offers an ideal natural laboratory to address the questions. In this study, a high-resolution chronological framework was established through precise radiocarbon dating. Multi-proxy analyses, including geochemical composition, grain size distributions, MS, LOI, and C/N ratios were conducted from a lacustrine profile in the core area of "Great ear" in the southern part of Lopnur catchment. These analyses enabled the reconstruction of hydrological dynamics and facilitated the disentanglement of independent signals linked to climate variability, runoff fluctuations, and lake-level changes. The results demonstrate that the Mid-Holocene (7 800–4 000 cal yr B.P.) was characterized by cold and humid conditions, resulting in elevated surface runoff and lake level. The Late Holocene (4 000–1 300 cal yr B.P.) experienced intensified aridification, characterized by reduced runoff and declining lake level. These evidences suggested a climatic regime of a distinctive alternation between "cold-wet" and "warm-dry" climatic regimes during the Mid-to-Late Holocene. Compared with the previous studies from adjacent regions, we speculate that the hydroclimatic evolution of Lopnur catchment possibly influenced by a complex interplay of large spatial scale forcings, including variations in annual insolation, greenhouse gas concentrations, and ice sheets, as well as the localized controls such as topographic features, vegetation cover, and cloud-radiative feedbacks. Our findings enhance the understanding of past climatic complexity and provide valuable insights for future water resource management strategies in drylands.
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